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Predictions

Economy report: predictions ledger

Every public prediction the report has made, with the confidence we gave it, the date it resolves and the source that will settle it. A later issue grades each claim when it comes due, and the grade is added here.

Standing methodPredictions ledger

  1. Set in October 2026

    China's share of Canadian canola seed export tonnes in crop year 2026-27 (August 2026 to July 2027) will be at least 45 percent

    Confidence
    60%
    Resolves by
    Grade
    Not yet graded
    Resolved against
    Canadian Grain Commission exports by destination, August 2026 to July 2027

  2. Set in October 2026

    India will not reopen a duty-free window for yellow peas before its 2027 rabi (winter crop) harvest

    Confidence
    70%
    Resolves by
    Grade
    Not yet graded
    Resolved against
    Government of India customs notifications to April 30, 2027

  3. Set in October 2026

    China will extend its suspension of the 100 percent tariffs on canola meal and peas beyond December 31, 2026

    Confidence
    55%
    Resolves by
    Grade
    Not yet graded
    Resolved against
    Chinese Customs Tariff Commission announcement on or before January 15, 2027