Economy report, October 2026

About the data. Export shares come from the Canadian Grain Commission's monthly exports by destination, August 2024 to August 2026, checked against Statistics Canada's customs records (Canadian Grain Commission, exports by destination; Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade). Corridor Watch uses India's own import records as reported to UN Comtrade (UN Comtrade). Tariff dates come from published reporting of each notice, checked by web search on October 10, 2026; the notices themselves have not yet been read. Intervals are 95 percent percentile bootstrap intervals from 2,000 resamples of months, with a fixed seed.

Dataset. Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) monthly exports of Canadian grain by destination from licensed facilities, with unlicensed container exports reported in the same file, for canola seed, peas and lentils, August 2024 to August 2026. That covers crop year 2024-25 (August 1, 2024 to July 31, 2025), crop year 2025-26 and the first month of crop year 2026-27. We used the monthly destination file, not the weekly one: the Grain Statistics Weekly export table for 2026-27 reports exports by port of clearance, not by destination, so it cannot carry this comparison. The CGC file holds 50,440 rows from January 2013; September 2026 had not been published on the retrieval date. We paired it with Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT) customs exports from Statistics Canada by Harmonized System (HS) code, the international product classification, and by country, January 2024 to August 2026: HS 1205.10 canola seed, 1514.11 and 1514.19 canola oil, 2306.41 canola meal, 0713.10 dried peas and 0713.40 dried lentils. The customs series checks the terminal record and covers canola oil and meal, which the CGC file does not.

Sample. All exports in the CGC destination file, licensed and container; all customs declarations in CIMT. Destination is as declared at loading or export, not the final buyer.

Correlation. Percentage-point change in each market's share of each commodity across the tariff events on that corridor, each dated from published reporting of its notice and checked by web search on October 10, 2026 (the notices themselves have not yet been read): China's 100 percent tariffs on canola oil, canola meal and peas from March 20, 2025; China's provisional anti-dumping deposit of 75.8 percent on canola seed from August 14, 2025; India's 30 percent duty on yellow peas (10 percent basic customs duty plus 20 percent Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess) for bills of lading from November 1, 2025; China's final anti-dumping duty of 5.9 percent on canola seed from March 1, 2026, for five years; and China's suspension of the 100 percent tariffs on oil cakes (which include canola meal) and peas from March 1 to December 31, 2026. The 100 percent tariff on canola oil was not suspended. Intervals are 95 percent percentile intervals from 2,000 bootstrap resamples of months within each period (fixed seed, so the file reproduces them), which is wide by design with six to twelve months a side.

What would change this finding. The CGC September and October 2026 files, which will show whether the August share holds as the harvest moves; a revision to the CGC record; any change to the December 31, 2026 end of the meal and pea suspension; or a review of the seed duty, which runs to February 2031 unless reviewed.

Licence. Open Government Licence Canada for CGC data; Statistics Canada Open Licence for CIMT; UN Comtrade terms for the mirror series.

Sources by section. Each sentence in the issue links to its own source; these lines give the full citation and how each figure was produced.

Source

Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), the federal regulator that records every tonne of grain leaving the country, "Exports of Canadian grain from licensed facilities", monthly file to August 2026 (https://grainscanada.gc.ca/en/grain-research/statistics/exports-grain-licensed-facilities/csv/exports.csv, retrieved October 10, 2026). Tariff terms: Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) Announcement 2026 No. 14 (final anti-dumping ruling, February 28, 2026) and State Council Customs Tariff Commission Announcement 2026 No. 2 (February 27, 2026), as reported in the press, checked by web search October 10, 2026; the notices themselves have not been read.

Method

Pooled share of canola seed export tonnes going to China, March to August 2026 against September 2025 to February 2026, with a 95 percent bootstrap interval from 2,000 resamples of months; August 2026 against August 2024 for the comparison with the pre-dispute level

Source

Canadian Grain Commission "Exports of Canadian grain from licensed facilities" (retrieved October 10, 2026); Statistics Canada CIMT web application, exports by HS code and country (retrieved October 10, 2026); MOFCOM Announcement 2026 No. 14 and Customs Tariff Commission Announcements 2025 No. 3 and 2026 No. 2, as reported (notices not yet read)

Method

Shares of tonnes (CGC) and of Canadian dollar value (CIMT) by destination over the stated windows, for every destination including the United States; intervals from 2,000 bootstrap resamples of months

Source

Canadian Grain Commission exports by destination to August 2026; UN Comtrade public preview, India-reported imports from Canada, HS 0713.10, to July 2026; Customs Tariff Commission Announcement 2026 No. 2 and MOFCOM Announcement 2026 No. 14, as reported (notices not yet read); CGC data retrieved October 10, 2026; the 55 percent odds are prediction econ-2026-10-3 in the predictions ledger

Method

Recommendation drawn from the March to August 2026 shares and the expiry dates in the notices

Source

Canadian Grain Commission exports by destination to August 2026, retrieved October 10, 2026

Method

Month-to-month swings read from the monthly destination shares; the six-month windows are those of the headline

Source

Government of India, Ministry of Finance, Notification No. 46/2025-Customs, October 29, 2025 (text as published at https://caalley.com/cus25/cst-46-2025.pdf, retrieved October 10, 2026; Gazette copy to confirm); Reuters, "India to impose 30% import duty on yellow peas from November 1", October 30, 2025; UN Comtrade public preview, India-reported imports from Canada, HS 0713.10 and 0713.40, monthly, January 2024 to July 2026, retrieved October 10, 2026; Statistics Canada CIMT exports of HS 0713.40 by country, August 2025 to July 2026, retrieved October 10, 2026

Method

Partner-reported import value (United States dollars) and net weight by month, summed over November to July in each year; India reported no 0713.10 record from Canada for June 2025, counted as zero; lentil market shares are Canadian dollar export value by destination over the crop year